BCFL Backtest

BCFL New-Format Backtest — Full Historical Simulation (2022–2025)#

What this is: the BCFL's new promotion/relegation format — a 16-week regular season, a single-week Seeding Showdown in Week 17, and the Aggregate Fantasy Performance (AFP) index deciding relegation — replayed against every completed season in league history (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 × Elite / Second / Third = 12 league-seasons), using the league's real game data.

Data sources: bcfl.pages.dev league archive (embedded DB object) plus the original Sleeper league APIs for all 12 historical league-seasons (league IDs recovered from the site). Sleeper supplied the authoritative weekly matchups, lineups and scores for every team in every week (1–17) — including consolation games and bye-week lineups the public site never showed.

Validation: every one of the 22,554 recorded player-week scores across all 12 league-seasons was recomputed from raw NFL stats under each league-year's exact scoring settings — 0 mismatches. Team mappings were verified by 13-week score signatures and week-by-week opponent pairings.

8/12

Champions reproduced

16/17

Real relegations reproduced

22,554

Player-week scores validated

0

Validation mismatches

1. Executive Summary#

  • Championships: the new format reproduces the actual title winner in 8 of 12 league-seasons. Two of the four flips happened because the real champion finished outside the top 2 seeds after 16 weeks (2022 Elite: Huntsville Hitmen, #4 seed; 2024 Second: Abu Dhabi Astronauts, #3 seed) — the new rules never grant them a title-shot matchup; the other two were top-2 seeds who lost the single-week championship Showdown (2023 Second: #1 Damascus Jerboas fell to Philly Broad St. Bullies; 2025 Third: #2 Death Valley Dementors fell to Gainesville Biscuit Boyz). (The old BCC title was a two-week combined score; the new title is decided by Week 17 alone.)
  • Relegation: under the old system 17 teams were actually relegated and 19 more left their division (franchise retirements / "replaced by expansion"). The new bottom-3 AFP rule would have sent 16 of those 17 real relegations down as well, plus 11 of the 19 exits, and would additionally drop 9 teams that actually survived (e.g. New Orleans Hurricanes 2025 Elite, Dodge City Drug Runners 2022 Elite, Montgomery Murkers 2023 Elite).
  • The Week 14 bye rule mattered: all 24 bye-team slots (2 per league-season) were filled with constructed optimal lineups per the brief. Constructed scores ran +0.1 to +77.1 points above the managers' real (unopposed, often unset) lineups — e.g. Birmingham Maulers' real Week 14 lineup in 2024 scored 0.00; their constructed optimal scored 213.27.
  • Data quirks found and fixed: the public site's reconstructed sheets contain ~148 transcription-level score discrepancies vs Sleeper (mostly ≤2 pts; the 2022 Third Week 1 grid is the worst), a handful of mislabeled opponents (2024 Elite, 2025 Second/Third wk 2–3), and phantom teams (LA Jaguars / Shreveport Snakes appear in the site's 2023 Third grid but were not in that league). All results here come from the Sleeper data.

Headline results#

Season Tier New-format champion Actual champion Match New AFP bottom 3 (relegated) Actually went down / left
2022 Elite El Paso Pythons Huntsville Hitmen ❌ Aurora Light Show, Bethlehem BBLs, Dodge City Drug Runners Aurora Light Show, Bethlehem BBLs
2022 Second Tuscaloosa Titans Tuscaloosa Titans ✅ Gainesville Biscuit Boyz, Orlando Ocelots, Sulligent Suckles Gainesville Biscuit Boyz, Orlando Ocelots, Sulligent Suckles
2022 Third Damascus Jerboas Damascus Jerboas ✅ Daphne Dragons, LA Jaguars, Nashville Scorpions Daphne Dragons, LA Jaguars, Miami Lemon Peppa Steppas, Nashville Scorpions, Shreveport Snakes
2023 Elite San Diego Bullshitters San Diego Bullshitters ✅ Abu Dhabi Astronauts, Cape Town Capers, Montgomery Murkers Abu Dhabi Astronauts, Cape Town Capers
2023 Second Philly Broad St. Bullies Damascus Jerboas ❌ Aurora Light Show, Bessemer Bangerz, Bethlehem BBLs Aurora Light Show, Bessemer Bangerz, Bethlehem BBLs, DC Sharks, Philly Broad St. Bullies
2023 Third Houston Diablos Houston Diablos ✅ Jacksonville Golden Panthers, Orlando Ocelots, Seattle Stingers Classic City Cattlemen, Orlando Ocelots
2024 Elite New Orleans Hurricanes New Orleans Hurricanes ✅ Damascus Jerboas, San Diego Bullshitters, Tuscaloosa Titans Huntsville Hitmen, San Diego Bullshitters, Tuscaloosa Titans
2024 Second Cape Town Capers Abu Dhabi Astronauts ❌ Norwalk Creatures, Rodeo Reapers, Stuttgart Strikers Gainesville Biscuit Boyz, Norwalk Creatures, Stuttgart Strikers
2024 Third Seattle Stingers Seattle Stingers ✅ Bessemer Bangerz, Myrtle Beach Sea Shells, Tombstone Stallions Bessemer Bangerz, Jacksonville Golden Panthers, Myrtle Beach Sea Shells, Tombstone Stallions
2025 Elite Fairhope Dongles Fairhope Dongles ✅ Damascus Jerboas, Montgomery Murkers, New Orleans Hurricanes Damascus Jerboas, Montgomery Murkers
2025 Second Sulligent Suckles Sulligent Suckles ✅ Rodeo Reapers, San Diego Bullshitters, Topeka Toes Rodeo Reapers, San Diego Bullshitters, Topeka Toes
2025 Third Gainesville Biscuit Boyz Death Valley Dementors ❌ Aurora Light Show, Oxnard Yellow Jackets, Pensacola Booty Smackers Aurora Light Show, Stuttgart Strikers