BCFL Backtest

3.2 2022 — Second Division (Tier 2)#

Part 1 — Regular Season Standings Going Into the Showdown (after Week 16)#

Seed | Team                        | Record | H2H Rank |  Total PF | PF Rank |   PF/Gm |   Margin
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#1   | Tuscaloosa Titans           | 12-4   | 1        |   2360.44 | 3       |  147.53 |  +171.64
#2   | Fairhope Dongles            | 11-5   | 2        |   2366.82 | 2       |  147.93 |  +179.80
#3   | Stuttgart Strikers          | 10-6   | 3        |   2290.00 | 4       |  143.12 |  +120.84
#4   | Abu Dhabi Astronauts        | 9-7    | 4        |   2432.02 | 1       |  152.00 |  +183.58
#5   | Bessemer Bangerz            | 9-7    | 5        |   2106.88 | 8       |  131.68 |  -105.08
#6   | Memphis Majors              | 8-8    | 6        |   2207.90 | 6       |  137.99 |  +167.52
#7   | Rodeo Reapers               | 6-10   | 7        |   2272.24 | 5       |  142.01 |  -129.96
#8   | Sulligent Suckles           | 5-11   | 8        |   2204.56 | 7       |  137.78 |   -83.82
#9   | Gainesville Biscuit Boyz    | 5-11   | 9        |   1961.04 | 9       |  122.56 |  -258.06
#10  | Orlando Ocelots             | 5-11   | 10       |   1929.48 | 10      |  120.59 |  -246.46

Week 14 byes (constructed): Abu Dhabi Astronauts and Tuscaloosa Titans sat out the real Week 14 under the old format. Per the brief, each was given the highest-scoring legal lineup achievable from its reconstructed Week-14 roster, and the two were paired as each other's simulated opponent:

Team Real (unset) Wk-14 lineup Constructed optimal Result
Abu Dhabi Astronauts 111.88 126.98 L (vs Tuscaloosa Titans)
Tuscaloosa Titans 118.78 138.78 W (vs Abu Dhabi Astronauts)

Constructed optimal lineups:

  • Abu Dhabi Astronauts (126.98): QB: Jalen Hurts (32.4), RB: Austin Ekeler (24.4), RB: Isiah Pacheco (12.3), WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (13.4), WR: Christian Kirk (9.5), TE: Pat Freiermuth (12.3), FLEX: Saquon Barkley (6.8), DEF: MIA D/ST (6.9), IDP_FLEX: Eric Kendricks (9.0) [empty: K]
  • Tuscaloosa Titans (138.78): QB: Patrick Mahomes (22.8), RB: Zonovan Knight (15.7), RB: Rachaad White (11.7), WR: Tyreek Hill (24.1), WR: Deebo Samuel (14.4), TE: Mark Andrews (3.7), FLEX: J.K. Dobbins (18.0), K: Jason Myers (5.7), DEF: ARI D/ST (7.2), IDP_FLEX: Maxx Crosby (15.5)

Part 2 — Week 17 Seeding Showdown#

Matchup                   | Game                                                            | Placement
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Championship              | #1 Tuscaloosa Titans (155.12)  vs  #2 Fairhope Dongles (124.50) | Tuscaloosa Titans: 1st, Fairhope Dongles: 2nd
Podium (3rd place)        | #3 Stuttgart Strikers (68.12)  vs  #4 Abu Dhabi Astronauts (133.58)| Abu Dhabi Astronauts: 3rd, Stuttgart Strikers: 4th
Top half                  | #5 Bessemer Bangerz (88.48)  vs  #6 Memphis Majors (87.20)      | Bessemer Bangerz: 5th, Memphis Majors: 6th
Mid-table                 | #7 Rodeo Reapers (109.90)  vs  #8 Sulligent Suckles (159.88)    | Sulligent Suckles: 7th, Rodeo Reapers: 8th
Relegation death match    | #9 Gainesville Biscuit Boyz (147.08)  vs  #10 Orlando Ocelots (88.52)| Gainesville Biscuit Boyz: 9th, Orlando Ocelots: 10th

All Week-17 scores are the teams' real recorded lineups for NFL Week 17 of that season.

Part 3 — Final AFP Table & Relegation Verdict#

Team                        | H2H |  PF |  SD |  AFP | AFPrk | Status
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuscaloosa Titans           |   1 |   3 |   1 |    5 |     1 | 🏆 CHAMPION · ✅ Safe
Fairhope Dongles            |   2 |   2 |   2 |    6 |     2 | 🥈 Runner-up · ✅ Safe
Abu Dhabi Astronauts        |   4 |   1 |   3 |    8 |     3 | 🥉 Podium (3rd) · ✅ Safe
Stuttgart Strikers          |   3 |   4 |   4 |   11 |     4 | ✅ Safe
Memphis Majors              |   6 |   6 |   6 |   18 |     5 | ✅ Safe
Bessemer Bangerz            |   5 |   8 |   5 |   18 |     6 | ⚠️ Bubble
Rodeo Reapers               |   7 |   5 |   8 |   20 |     7 | ⚠️ Bubble
Sulligent Suckles           |   8 |   7 |   7 |   22 |     8 | ❌ RELEGATED
Gainesville Biscuit Boyz    |   9 |   9 |   9 |   27 |     9 | ❌ RELEGATED
Orlando Ocelots             |  10 |  10 |  10 |   30 |    10 | ❌ RELEGATED

Relegation verdict: ❌ Sulligent Suckles, Gainesville Biscuit Boyz, Orlando Ocelots drop (bottom 3 AFP).

Versus actual history (old format)#

  • Title: actual champion was Tuscaloosa Titans — the new format agrees: they win the #1v#2 Showdown (155.12 pts in Week 17).
  • Relegation: the old system relegated Gainesville Biscuit Boyz, Orlando Ocelots, Sulligent Suckles. New AFP bottom 3 = Gainesville Biscuit Boyz, Orlando Ocelots, Sulligent Suckles — overlaps with history on Gainesville Biscuit Boyz, Orlando Ocelots, Sulligent Suckles.
Team Old AFP (site) Old rank Actual outcome (next season) New AFP New rank New status
Tuscaloosa Titans 93.33 1 Promoted to Elite 5 1 🏆 CHAMPION · ✅ Safe
Fairhope Dongles 80.00 3 Stayed 6 2 🥈 Runner-up · ✅ Safe
Abu Dhabi Astronauts 90.00 2 Promoted to Elite 8 3 🥉 Podium (3rd) · ✅ Safe
Stuttgart Strikers 76.67 4 Stayed 11 4 ✅ Safe
Memphis Majors 43.33 7 Stayed 18 5 ✅ Safe
Bessemer Bangerz 50.00 6 Stayed 18 6 ⚠️ Bubble
Rodeo Reapers 53.33 5 Stayed 20 7 ⚠️ Bubble
Sulligent Suckles 33.33 8 Relegated to Third 22 8 ❌ RELEGATED
Gainesville Biscuit Boyz 16.67 9 Relegated to Third 27 9 ❌ RELEGATED
Orlando Ocelots 13.33 10 Relegated to Third 30 10 ❌ RELEGATED

Engine notes: AFP tie among ['Memphis Majors', 'Bessemer Bangerz'] broken by raw PF

Weekly score matrix (Weeks 1–16 regular season + Week 17 Showdown)#

* = constructed optimal lineup (Week-14 bye rule). Bold pair weeks 14–17 included consolation/idle games now counting as regular season.

Seed / Team W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17
#1 Tuscaloosa Titans 159.7 198.8 133.4 133.5 170.6 125.7 127.2 168.6 143.4 148.4 153.3 145.9 137.6 138.8* 142.4 133.1 155.1
#2 Fairhope Dongles 157.9 125.3 165.0 145.4 150.8 127.8 130.3 181.2 145.4 114.5 183.1 140.7 147.6 155.2 130.5 166.2 124.5
#3 Stuttgart Strikers 166.0 175.9 128.4 161.1 179.3 168.6 119.8 126.3 159.2 122.1 111.1 151.9 100.8 139.5 169.5 110.6 68.1
#4 Abu Dhabi Astronauts 140.5 197.0 126.0 145.0 150.0 139.5 137.0 137.1 137.9 177.2 141.8 195.6 181.4 127.0* 162.7 136.3 133.6
#5 Bessemer Bangerz 100.9 118.1 117.6 99.1 130.0 172.9 184.8 159.4 108.3 124.4 160.2 84.1 139.6 105.3 148.6 153.6 88.5
#6 Memphis Majors 124.1 111.2 124.6 153.5 142.2 106.1 126.5 160.6 146.6 148.0 137.9 164.0 124.2 126.1 156.2 156.1 87.2
#7 Rodeo Reapers 116.7 168.5 118.7 128.7 170.9 73.1 139.8 132.9 128.0 181.1 175.1 148.6 178.9 149.6 119.7 142.0 109.9
#8 Sulligent Suckles 147.5 107.6 108.1 131.2 146.4 125.0 142.0 154.8 187.8 113.4 145.3 111.6 121.3 201.0 133.4 128.1 159.9
#9 Gainesville Biscuit Boyz 171.0 137.3 126.1 146.0 141.9 117.8 102.6 130.6 102.1 101.2 128.6 115.3 123.2 99.2 114.9 103.3 147.1
#10 Orlando Ocelots 135.9 150.5 104.7 104.1 95.6 104.2 143.1 167.6 135.4 128.0 81.3 120.3 133.3 101.0 120.4 104.3 88.5