4. Cross-Season Insights#
4.1 How often does the new format change the story?#
- Champions: 8/12 reproduced. The Showdown's #1v#2 winner-take-all means the title now always goes to a top-2 seed. Of the four flips: 2 were actual champions who were NOT a top-2 seed after 16 weeks (2022 Elite: Huntsville Hitmen, #4 seed; 2024 Second: Abu Dhabi Astronauts, #3 seed), so the new rules never grant them a title shot; and 2 were top-2 seeds who lost the single-week championship Showdown (2023 Second: Damascus Jerboas over Philly Broad St. Bullies; 2025 Third: Death Valley Dementors over Gainesville Biscuit Boyz) — they had won the old two-week-combined BCC, but the new title is decided by Week 17 alone.
- Relegation: 16/17 real relegations reproduced (11/19 of the franchise exits also land in the new bottom 3). The strict "bottom 3 by AFP" rule is harsher than the old system in the Elite (which historically dropped only 2) and spares several teams whose franchises retired or were "replaced by expansion" for non-sporting reasons.
4.2 Franchise impact table (relegation-zone hits under the new rules)#
| Franchise | Seasons played | New-format relegations | Actual relegations/departures | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora Light Show | 4 | 3 | 3 | +0 |
| Damascus Jerboas | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Montgomery Murkers | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Rodeo Reapers | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| San Diego Bullshitters | 4 | 2 | 2 | +0 |
| Bessemer Bangerz | 3 | 2 | 2 | +0 |
| Orlando Ocelots | 3 | 2 | 2 | +0 |
| Bethlehem BBLs | 2 | 2 | 2 | +0 |
| Abu Dhabi Astronauts | 4 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Cape Town Capers | 4 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Dodge City Drug Runners | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Gainesville Biscuit Boyz | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| New Orleans Hurricanes | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Norwalk Creatures | 4 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Seattle Stingers | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Stuttgart Strikers | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Sulligent Suckles | 4 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Tuscaloosa Titans | 4 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Topeka Toes | 3 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Jacksonville Golden Panthers | 2 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Daphne Dragons | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| LA Jaguars | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Myrtle Beach Sea Shells | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Nashville Scorpions | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Oxnard Yellow Jackets | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Pensacola Booty Smackers | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Tombstone Stallions | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Huntsville Hitmen | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Classic City Cattlemen | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| DC Sharks | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Philly Broad St. Bullies | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Miami Lemon Peppa Steppas | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Shreveport Snakes | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
4.3 The Week-14 construction, quantified#
| Season/Tier | Bye teams | Real lineup | Constructed optimal | Boost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Elite | El Paso Pythons | 154.06 | 198.46 | +44.40 |
| 2022 Elite | Montgomery Murkers | 128.66 | 150.26 | +21.60 |
| 2022 Second | Abu Dhabi Astronauts | 111.88 | 126.98 | +15.10 |
| 2022 Second | Tuscaloosa Titans | 118.78 | 138.78 | +20.00 |
| 2022 Third | Damascus Jerboas | 94.48 | 104.78 | +10.30 |
| 2022 Third | Philly Broad St. Bullies | 57.50 | 134.60 | +77.10 |
| 2023 Elite | New Orleans Hurricanes | 211.82 | 227.22 | +15.40 |
| 2023 Elite | San Diego Bullshitters | 221.06 | 232.06 | +11.00 |
| 2023 Second | Damascus Jerboas | 176.16 | 214.06 | +37.90 |
| 2023 Second | Philly Broad St. Bullies | 165.12 | 213.02 | +47.90 |
| 2023 Third | Gainesville Biscuit Boyz | 110.38 | 152.86 | +42.48 |
| 2023 Third | Sulligent Suckles | 134.02 | 139.72 | +5.70 |
| 2024 Elite | Birmingham Maulers | 0.00 | 213.27 | +213.27 |
| 2024 Elite | New Orleans Hurricanes | 211.50 | 217.50 | +6.00 |
| 2024 Second | Cape Town Capers | 188.28 | 239.68 | +51.40 |
| 2024 Second | Memphis Majors | 133.30 | 136.00 | +2.70 |
| 2024 Third | Prattville Snappers | 85.30 | 106.46 | +21.16 |
| 2024 Third | Seattle Stingers | 110.66 | 159.46 | +48.80 |
| 2025 Elite | Cape Town Capers | 193.79 | 219.29 | +25.50 |
| 2025 Elite | Fairhope Dongles | 161.06 | 202.86 | +41.80 |
| 2025 Second | Seattle Stingers | 112.60 | 112.70 | +0.10 |
| 2025 Second | Tuscaloosa Titans | 144.50 | 152.80 | +8.30 |
| 2025 Third | Classic City Cattlemen | 157.90 | 191.50 | +33.60 |
| 2025 Third | Gainesville Biscuit Boyz | 81.60 | 104.50 | +22.90 |
Note: the brief mandates the optimal-lineup construction for Week-14 bye teams, so those two teams per league enter the standings with a theoretical-best score for that week. Every other team-week in the backtest is a real recorded score.
4.4 Data-quality appendix#
- 148 of 1,560 site-vs-Sleeper team-game scores differ (9.5%); 2022 accounts for 57 of them (the site's 2022 reconstruction has cross-division score contamination in a few Week 1–3 rows). Sleeper used as ground truth throughout.
- Site pairing errors corrected by Sleeper: 2023 Third (LA Jaguars/Shreveport Snakes phantom games; Sulligent/Wichita games missing), 2024 Elite (Fairhope wk 2/8/9/10 opponents), 2024 Third (Aurora opponents), 2025 Second wk 3 and 2025 Third wk 2 (crossed pairings).
- Historical scoring settings differ by year AND division (2022 Third: 9 starters, no IDP; 2023+: IDP DL/LB/DB slots). Each league-season was scored under its own settings — verified exact against 22,554 recorded player-week scores.
- 2023 Second playoff sheet on the site contains mirrored/duplicated games; Sleeper legs show the clean bracket.